Piracy is a high risk, high return economic venture. Raise the risk, lower the return, and it makes piracy less attractive. Skew the variables far enough, and pirates don't need to be arrested or killed; they will be forced to seek other employment.
Sadly, Somalia offers little other employment opportunity. This would mean the desperate young men would either turn to other forms of crime, or move away.
Recent headlines seem to show present anti-piracy efforts are having just that effect. Somali criminals are kidnapping high profile international targets outside Somalia then returning to pirate havens to hold them for ransom.
This doesn't seem to be a good development, but appearances are deceptive. Somali authorities, what few exist, were happy to ignore piracy as long as the victims did not involve Somalia. High profile victims from neighboring countries will bring far more attention and pressure to the criminals.
At this point locals will be forced to face and deal with their own situation. It might cause towns to fail, local economies to crash, local tribes to lose everything, but anything being supported by piracy, kidnap, and murder must face consequenses.
The good news is such disaster need not strike. Remove criminals from power and foreign aid received would be used in a constructive way, aid organizations able to once again operate locally, neighboring countries feel better about helping.
My guess? It'll be the best thing to happen for Somalia in decades.
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